“If we do not think we can win, we should not be out here.”

This is something I have been saying to teams I have sailed with for years. I have known for a long time that thinking we can win goes a long toward helping us persevere, take chances, and make decisions that lead to a win. When every member of the crew sees themselves as part of a winning team, they’re more likely to give their absolute best rather than simply go through the motions.

That doesn’t mean we always win. But it changes how we compete.

What I didn’t realize until I began exploring the science of behavior change was just how much research supports what I’ve experienced on the water.

Our beliefs influence our actions. Our actions influence our results. And our results, in turn, can reinforce or challenge our beliefs.

This isn’t just about individual confidence. It’s about what happens when an entire team believes in its ability to succeed.

Why Does Believing We Can Win Matter?

Psychologist Albert Bandura introduced the concept of self-efficacy, our belief in our ability to accomplish a particular task or achieve a desired outcome.

Research has demonstrated that self-efficacy influences the goals we pursue, the effort we expend, and our persistence when we encounter obstacles.

Consider two sailors approaching the same race.

One believes the competition is too strong and that winning is unlikely. The other believes the team has the ability to compete and win.

Both may have the same skills, equipment, and weather conditions. But their expectations can influence how they approach the race.

The first sailor may hesitate, play it safe, or become discouraged by an early setback. The second may remain engaged, look for opportunities, take calculated risks, and continue pushing for every advantage.

The difference isn’t necessarily ability. It’s how their beliefs influence their behavior.

Now consider what happens when that belief is shared by an entire crew.

How Does Collective Belief Influence Team Performance?

Bandura also explored collective efficacy, the shared belief that a group can organize its efforts and achieve a goal together.

That’s what I’ve been trying to establish with my sailing teams.

When I say, “If we do not think we can win, we should not be out here,” I’m not suggesting that confidence alone will carry us across the finish line.

I’m establishing an expectation about how we will participate.

Everyone has a role. Everyone contributes to the outcome. Everyone needs to be fully engaged.

On a sailboat, the person trimming the sails, the person watching the wind, the person calling tactics, and the person steering are continually responding to one another and to changing conditions.

A small adjustment by one person can affect the performance of the entire boat.

The same is true in an organization.

A team that believes it can achieve an ambitious goal is more likely to stay committed, collaborate, and persevere through setbacks. A team that has already decided success is unlikely may begin disengaging long before the outcome is determined.

Research on collective efficacy has found meaningful relationships between shared confidence, team effort, persistence, and performance.

But shared belief isn’t something a leader can simply declare into existence.

It develops through preparation, experience, trust, and the team’s growing confidence in its ability to work together.

Winning isn’t entirely within our control. Showing up as a winning team is.

How Do Thoughts, Emotions, and Physical Responses Influence Results?

We often describe the relationship between our thoughts and results as a simple sequence:

Thoughts → Feelings → Actions → Results

It’s a useful starting point, but human behavior is more complex.

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) recognizes that our thoughts, emotions, physical sensations, and behaviors are interconnected. Each can influence the others.

And sometimes the first thing we notice isn’t a thought at all. It’s a physical response.

Imagine you’re racing and another boat unexpectedly takes the lead.

Your stomach tightens. Your breathing changes. You feel a surge of frustration or anxiety. Or, if you’re me, you start talking a bit more.

You might begin thinking, “We’re losing. We’re not fast enough. We’re never going to catch them.”

Those thoughts can influence your confidence, your willingness to take risks, and how you communicate with your teammates.

But what if you recognize what’s happening?

You take a breath. Refocus your attention. Look for the next opportunity.

You might ask, “What can we do right now to improve our position?”

That deliberate behavioral shift can change how you think and feel, helping you return your attention to the task at hand.

The important insight is that you don’t always have to change your thoughts first.

Sometimes changing your behavior helps change your thinking.

And sometimes recognizing a physical response gives you an early opportunity to interrupt an unproductive pattern.

For leaders, this is especially important. Our reactions influence not only our own performance but also the people around us.

A leader who becomes visibly frustrated after a setback can amplify the team’s anxiety. A leader who acknowledges the challenge and redirects attention toward constructive action can help the team regain its focus.

Neither response guarantees success. But they create very different conditions for performance.

Is Positive Thinking Enough to Produce Better Results?

No.

And this is an important distinction.

Research by psychologist Gabriele Oettingen has found that simply fantasizing about a positive outcome can sometimes reduce the effort people invest in achieving it.

Imagining success isn’t the same as believing success is possible and taking the actions necessary to achieve it.

Optimism becomes useful when it’s grounded in reality and accompanied by action.

On a sailboat, confidence doesn’t eliminate the need to understand the wind, watch the competition, prepare the equipment, or make difficult tactical decisions.

In fact, recognizing the challenges ahead is part of competing effectively.

The same applies to business.

A sales team doesn’t improve its win rate simply by believing it can close more deals. It needs the skills, preparation, communication, and discipline to turn that belief into performance.

An executive team doesn’t achieve an ambitious strategy by repeatedly affirming that it will succeed. It must identify obstacles, make decisions, allocate resources, and follow through.

Belief makes us more willing to do the work. It doesn’t replace the work.

How Can Leaders Build a Team That Believes It Can Win?

There are four practical behaviors leaders can use to strengthen collective efficacy.

1. Establish a clear, compelling destination

People need to understand what they’re working toward and why it matters.

A vague aspiration to “perform better” isn’t enough.

What does winning look like? How will we know we’re making progress? What role does each person play?

When the destination is clear, team members can connect their daily choices to a meaningful outcome.

2. Build confidence through preparation and experience

Confidence grows when people develop competence and experience progress.

Give team members opportunities to practice, make decisions, solve problems, and learn from the results.

Recognize what is working, not simply to make people feel good, but to help them see the connection between their actions and their accomplishments.

Small successes can build the confidence to tackle larger challenges.

3. Encourage initiative and calculated risk-taking

Teams that are afraid to make mistakes often become cautious and reactive.

But winning frequently requires making decisions with incomplete information, adapting to changing conditions, and trying approaches that might not work.

Leaders need to create an environment where people can speak up, make informed decisions, and learn from setbacks without fear of unnecessary blame.

The goal isn’t reckless confidence. It’s the willingness to act thoughtfully when the outcome is uncertain.

4. Reinforce the behaviors that produce results

Pay attention to how the team works, not just whether it wins.

Are people communicating? Sharing information? Supporting one another? Following through on commitments? Adjusting when circumstances change?

Recognize and reinforce these behaviors.

When the team encounters a setback, examine what happened and what can be improved rather than allowing disappointment to become disengagement.

Over time, these everyday experiences help build the shared belief that the team is capable of succeeding together.

How Can We Change the Results We’re Getting?

Sometimes we need to work backward from the results we’re seeing.

If a team consistently misses its goals, it’s worth examining more than the numbers.

What behaviors are producing those results?

What emotions or physical reactions may be influencing those behaviors?

What beliefs and assumptions are shaping how people approach their work?

Perhaps the team has stopped taking initiative because previous suggestions were dismissed. Perhaps repeated setbacks have undermined confidence. Perhaps people don’t understand how their contributions connect to the larger goal.

Changing the results may require changing the underlying conditions, the team’s beliefs, or the behaviors those beliefs reinforce.

And sometimes the most effective starting point is simply to do something differently.

That’s why I believe leadership growth is built through small, deliberate behavioral shifts, practiced in the work we’re already doing.

On the water, we don’t have the luxury of stopping the race to attend a training session. We learn, adapt, and improve while we’re sailing.

The same opportunity exists in our organizations.

We don’t have to wait for the next leadership retreat or development program to begin changing how our teams perform.

We can start by asking ourselves and our teams:

• What results do we want to achieve?
• Do we genuinely believe we’re capable of achieving them?
• What thoughts or assumptions may be limiting our performance?
• What behaviors would we see if everyone were showing up as part of a winning team?
• What’s one thing we can do differently today?

I still believe that if we don’t think we can win, we shouldn’t be out there.

Not because winning is guaranteed, but because how we think about our potential influences how we participate.

And when everyone sees themselves as part of a winning team, they’re more likely to bring the energy, initiative, persistence, and commitment that make winning possible.

We can’t always control the outcome. But we can influence the behaviors that get us there.